Will the Scottish team finally break their long-standing losing streak?
International Rugby Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.
After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.
A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.
Recent History
Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.
During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Team News
Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.
Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.
As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.
Missing Players
Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.
In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.
Replacement Concerns
Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Historical Context
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.
That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
By the Numbers
For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.
They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.
Required Performance
Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.
The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.
Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.
Conclusion
Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.
With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.